Another day, another poll, and the indicators are pointing to Santorum taking the lead in the GOP presidential race. The CBSNews poll results (shown above) are the latest in a trend favoring the conservative candidate, from yesterday's Pew Research results...
...to the latest from Public Policy Polling, which has Santorum up by 15...
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 23%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 13%
...and many in between (e.g., Ricochet and HotAir, respectively).
Meanwhile, Gallup, as well as this weekend's Washington Times/CPAC national poll, show Romney and Santorum neck-and-neck (notice the same trend with Gallup, though...Romney declining, Santorum rising):
Real Clear Politics averages the latest polls out to show Santorum in the lead.
Extremely good news for conservatives, particularly as Santorum heads aggressively towards Michigan's primary, where he's polling 15 points ahead of Romney in one poll (39-24, PPP). This would supply a significant victory for Santorum considering it's the state from which Romney's own father once governed. CBSNews also reports their stats:
Riding a wave of momentum after sweeping three Republican presidential contests last week, Rick Santorum is now leading Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to a new poll.
Santorum leads among likely voters in the Michigan's February 28 primary, with 33 percent, according to a new survey from American Research Group. Romney wins 27 percent support, while Newt Gingrich garners 21 percent and Ron Paul takes 12 percent.
Among likely Republican primary voters who say they will definitely vote in the primary, 36 percent back Santorum, while 25 percent support Romney. Santorum's lead widens more dramatically among self-identified Republicans. The former Pennsylvania senator takes 42 percent of that group's support, while Gingrich takes 24 percent and Romney wins 18 percent.
And as long as the Santorum's sights remain focused above the campaign shenanigans and on the real issues at hand (i.e., Obama and his policies), then he'll do well among Michigan voters. This from mLive:
Santorum on Monday took aim not at his rival for the nomination, but at President Obama, criticizing his budget plan.
“The American people have spoken loudly for the past three years, demanding fiscal responsibility from our leaders and President Obama is either deaf or simply won’t listen,” he said in a release.
“Today’s proposal of nearly $4 trillion in spending over the next four years is preposterous, not only in overall funding but in priorities. If we do not get our spending under control, we will have turmoil in the streets – and that’s not a guess. All you have to do is look to Europe.
“America needs to lead, and America needs a leader prepared to make those tough choices. I am committed to balancing our budget and cutting $5 trillion in spending in five years. These are the measures necessary to not just put our nation’s fiscal house in order, but to spur on economic growth and confidence in our free-market system.”
I can't help but think that Michigan's lead in the lawsuits against Obama's birth control mandate supplies added advantage to Santorum's chances as well, which may or may not play into Dick Morris' latest theory on that topic (Rush discussed as well this morning).Regardless of whether either of these issues affect Santorum either way, there's something powerful going on with the conservative candidate, when you've got former-Perry-supporting-now-turned-Gingrich-backer RedState willing to publish (not from one of its usual writers, mind you) a piece that says in so many words, 'don't underestimate Santorum, his candidacy or the problem he could be for Obama!'
There is something truly American about how his presidential campaign has been. Shoestring budget, little organization, dogged perseverance, tireless and grinding campaigning on the ground, hardly a presence on the airwaves but never giving up and keeping at it. Given that his win in Iowa and his recent tri-state sweep in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado has turned some heads, people are paying attention to him. And Mitt Romney is praying Newt Gingrich, the man whom his super PACs and campaign have been ruthlessly attacking him, stays in the race.
Santorum’s idea of going with a 0% corporate tax rate for manufacturing companies to jump start the Rust Belt is going to definitely perk some ears in Michigan and Ohio once voters there look at him which they are probably already doing. But there is an awful omen for Mitt Romney starting to percolate. The South is starting to look hard at Santorum too. Santorum is up in Tennessee with the latest polling there. Reason stands that if Santorum is up in Tennsessee, he probably is up in Ohio as well. It will be interesting to see what polling is taking place in other Super Tuesday states in the South. If Santorum wins Michigan (which PPP states that he has indeed pulled ahead) and pulls off a Super Tuesday sweep save Vermont and Massachusetts, he will be the nominee. The South figured to be Gingrich territory but with Gingrich cratering everywhere in the polls, if it comes down between Romney and Santorum and Santorum takes the Midwest and the South, game over.
When I think about the challenge that Rick Santorum could pose to Barack Obama, I see a lot of advantages. Beside all of Barack Obama’s presidential baggage that Santorum would no doubt remind voters of, Obama wouldn’t be able to go with the 1% tax the rich narrative that his campaign would love to hit Romney with, he would be hammered in regards to Obamacare and wouldn’t have Romneycare to save him, the recent debacle that Obama tried to pull with the HHS forcing churches to provide birth control as part of health coverage takes the social issue platform off the table, Obama’s weak foreign policy, I could go on and on. Bottom line, the light of scrutiny would fall on Obama’s time in office and the shape our country economically is in.
Likewise, Robert Stacy McCain dampens some of the naysayer's concerns over electability, pointing to the rapid growth in contributions, which still pales in comparison to Boston's consummate inside-outsider, but when combined with shear momentum, has proven to go a long way:
Now, fresh from triple victories last Tuesday in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri, the former Pennsylvania senator was riding a wave of momentum, attracting the kind of crowds (and swarming media coverage) that follow a bona fide presidential contender.
[At CPAC] Santorum had been raking in online donations at a pace of $1 million a day since Tuesday's trifecta. In fact, [finance director, Nadine] Maenza said, she had been informed that the campaign had already collected a half-million dollars that morning, so that total donations to Santorum since Tuesday were already more than $3 million.
Santorum's second surge, which evoked memories of the frenetic final week before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, gave credibility to his claim to be the "consistent conservative" alternative to Romney.
Right on!
UPDATES: With a 12-point lead, Rasmussen finally weighs in to round out the verdict: Rick Santorum is now the GOP frontrunner!
Santorum 39%
Romney 27%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 10%
On Thursday morning, Rasmussen released the GOP primary polls for Ohio: Santorum 42%, Romney 24%!
