- Total population of US is over 314M...out of those, over 235M are eligible to vote.
- 60.7M voted for Obama to 57.8M who voted for Romney...that's only 118.5M that voted (only HALF that are eligible to vote)
- Nearly 10M less turned out to vote for Obama in 2012 than in 2008, BUT close to 3M LESS turned out to vote for Romney in 2012 than voted for McCain in 2008. (McCain's vote in 2008 would have beaten Obama in 2012)
Now, before getting further into what these numbers mean, I should preface this with an acknowledgement of some of the things floating out there. If you hear some say 'the Republican Party needs to change,' meaning their principles on social values, let me offer a sobering perspective: Republicans can do a complete 180, drop Principle altogether, and support gay marriage, amnesty, drugs, prostitution, and an assortment of other destructive left-leaning issues, including abortion, and they will still LOSE to the Democrats...because those scoundrels have not only mastered the art of pandering, but they relish, celebrate and most of all BELIEVE in the self-righteousness of their wicked ways.
So back to the numbers and some clues to why the voter turnout might have been so low. First, I want to reference this RCP piece...
Obviously, this surge in the non-white vote is troubling to Republicans, who are increasingly almost as reliant upon the white vote to win as Democrats are on the non-white vote. With the white vote decreasing as a share of the electorate over time, it becomes harder and harder for Republicans to prevail.
Sean Trende, the author of this piece, mentions the renewed discussions to draw in minority voters, but Trende says, and I agree, "I think these analyses are off base." Rather, Trende points to a critical absence...
But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.
As of this writing, Barack Obama has received a bit more than 60 million votes. Mitt Romney has received 57 million votes. Although the gap between Republicans and Democrats has closed considerably since 2008, Romney is still running about 2.5 million votes behind John McCain; the gap has closed simply because Obama is running about 9 million votes behind his 2008 totals.
Of course, there are an unknown number of ballots outstanding. If we guesstimate the total at 7 million (3 million in California, 1.5 million or so in Oregon and Washington, and another 2.5 million or so spread throughout the country), that would bring the total number of votes cast in 2012 to about 125 million: 5 million votes shy of the number cast four years ago.
Trende asks, "So who were these whites and why did they stay home?" Well, the verdict's still out on that, but I think there are a couple of suspicions here. Trende believes...
My first instinct was that they might be conservative evangelicals turned off by Romney’s Mormonism or moderate past. But the decline didn’t seem to be concentrated in Southern states with high evangelical populations.
My sense is these voters were unhappy with Obama. But his negative ad campaign relentlessly emphasizing Romney’s wealth and tenure at Bain Capital may have turned them off to the Republican nominee as well. The Romney campaign exacerbated this through the challenger’s failure to articulate a clear, positive agenda to address these voters’ fears, and self-inflicted wounds like the “47 percent” gaffe. Given a choice between two unpalatable options, these voters simply stayed home.
Now, I'm not certain that I agree with all of Trende's conclusion (particularly the 47% that the MEDIA distorted), but I think Trende is 'trending' towards an answer. Adding another level to that assessment, Kevin Dujan over at HillBuzz delves further into the absent, asking 'Did the Ron Paul Revolution stay home?'
Mitt Romney won 3 million votes less than McCain while Obama lost 10 million votes of his own from 2008.
The main part of why I believed Romney would win this time because I knew the 10 million Obama supporters would sit home…but never in my worst nightmares did I imagine McCain voters would sit home. I counted on them to show up and bring friends this time to boot Obama out.
The only thing I can think of is this:
- Ron Paul supporters sat the election out because of Dr. Paul, because of the conflict regarding the convention and the other delegate issues
- Evangelicals went through with their threat to sit home because Romney is a member of the LDS Church
Personally, I think if there was an evangelical voter absence, it has more to do with not being listened to as opposed to Romney's beliefs...I mean, look at Obama's nonbeliefs! Regardless, DuJan goes on to share Trende's feeling that the Ministry of Truth talking heads are saying that 'it was all about Hispanics,' but says that's a red herring. Agreed. "That doesn’t explain dropping three million votes below McCain and a total of five million votes from Bush in 2004."
Ron Paul supporters seem to explain that first drop from Bush’s 2004 numbers, sitting out to the tune of 2 million when McCain ran in 2008…and then sitting out even more this time; perhaps it’s a combination of Ron Paul people and Evangelicals who sat home “to teach everyone a lesson”.
That’s an expensive lesson if this is right.
Indeed. So, 3 Million mostly-white Republican voters didn't show up. Some obviously tired of moderate candidates, others tired of not being listened to. And they couldn't get past that to get rid of the current rabid statist? Could it be, as Rush ponders this morning, that they didn't see a constitutional, conservative campaign? Rather than figuring out the next level of pandering to gather traditionally Democrat voters, perhaps the Republican Party should focus on it's base that didn't show up.
Disclaimer: None of what I've discussed here pardons the Republican Establishment's role in dividing the Party either!
