Related links: Dr. Drew Pinsky slams media for inciting coronavirus 'panic'
We Go From Hysteria to Hysteria
Not that the coronavirus isn't serious, but the media hype is sharply overblown...
Likewise, the media is spreading fear by reporting the number of deaths and cases without context: approx. 90,000 cases, resulting in approx. 3000 deaths...compared to WHAT?! How about EVERYTHING ELSE!...coronavirus has infected around 90,000 people that we know of, and killed around 3,000, and made its way into 60 countries across the globe. No rational person would claim that it is unimportant or imaginary. But rational people will say, and are saying, that the panic, hysteria, and media hype are way overblown. We are not facing the apocalypse or anything close to it. Arguably, this isn’t even a pandemic (though it depends on how you define the term). I’m not sure that our culture is capable of being serious but not hysterical about something, but on this we should give it a try. And here are a few facts that hopefully put the issue into perspective:
1. The virus is not killing young, healthy people. Surprisingly it isn’t killing infants or children either. So far, the vast majority of serious and fatal cases are among the elderly and the sick. Of course, deaths in that demographic are tragic, too, but many illnesses are serious or potentially fatal to the very old and the immune-compromised.
2. The real mortality rate is almost certainly not the 2 or 3 percent that’s been reported. That number only applies to reported cases. In order to be a reported case, you need to go to the doctor or a hospital and get tested for the illness. Everyone who had the virus, never got tested, and recovered, is not counted against the official mortality rate because we don’t know about them and we don’t know how many of them there are. The important point is that majority of cases are mild. ... Some researchers think [the real mortality rate] might be a little less than 1 percent but even that is conjecture. We simply don’t have a large enough sample size. One other thing to remember: most of the 3,000 dead were in China where the healthcare system is in shambles. Even so, cases of coronavirus are already falling exponentially in China. There’s another reason for cautious optimism.
3. It’s easy to forget that we have suffered through and survived pandemics before, including very recently. Only 10 years ago the swine flu managed to infect over 60 million people and kill over 12 thousand — in the US alone. Globally, the death toll topped half a million. This, again, doesn’t mean that the coronavirus isn’t serious. It just means that the media-fueled panic is out of proportion and lacks perspective. As is always the case with panics.
...when compared to the global annual mortality of other diseases, the number of total deaths is relatively insignificant.Furthermore, the markets are following the media in this overhyped sensationalism and driving all of our investments into the toilet...
Measles: 140,000 deathsImagine a world in which every death from the flu was reported on the front page of every media outlet. You might be surprised, for example, to find out that in the U.S. 105 children have died from the flu so far in 2020 - the second-highest number of deaths at this time of year since records began in 2004.
Influenza: 650,000 deaths
Tuberculosis: 1.5 million deaths
Infectious gastroenteritis: 1.8 million deaths
Our intensely interconnected societies and sensationalist media mean that this failure of judgment can translate into mass hysteria and fear in the markets that can have a tangible impact on the world economy. Oil prices have collapsed, stock markets have fallen by the largest amount since the 2008 financial crisis and the Dow Jones saw its largest single-day points drop in history. All of this has come from the spread of the coronavirus from China to South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan. But as this spread continues there is one key factor that market observers appear to be missing, highlighted by the below chart.Kinda hard not to think about all those frenzied celebrities, pundits and politicians (you know, the aristocratic bourgeois) just last year before the impeachment hoax hoping for a recession to defeat President Trump...never mind jobs, retirement, the wealth and well-being of the general public (you know, WE THE PEOPLE)! Is the unfree, lib press now taking their cue? A question worth pondering in this overhyped, misunderstood, media-driven freakout. Whatever the case, here's to hoping it ends soon for all our sakes.
This is an epidemic curve showing the number of new cases per day in China (the world’s second-largest economy and the world's largest importer of goods). It appears that China is in the process of successfully containing the coronavirus and, for that reason, has already begun to reboot its economy (the large jump in the middle of the above graph was caused by China changing its recording method from positive test cases to clinical diagnosis).
China is getting back to work. And you can be sure that the Chinese government will be doing everything in its power to stimulate growth. Here are some other key indicators that show the same thing:
But these are generally not the statistics or the graphs reported by the media. Instead, they report cumulative data and crude numbers out of context.
These cumulative graphs suggest that coronavirus deaths and cases are increasing and therefore the epidemic is getting worse. Of course, in a cumulative graph, the cases will only ever go up or plateau.
This graph, which is far more relevant, shows a general downward trend in global new confirmed cases per day and an increase in new recovered cases. This data would suggest that containing the coronavirus is very much a possibility and if governments continue to follow good practice the new outbreaks can be controlled without impacting the economy too severely.
In fact, the largest threat to the markets at the moment is not an epidemic of disease but an epidemic of hysteria. Governments and medical institutions are reacting, as they should, to prevent a worst-case scenario. But for societies and markets to react in the same way is neither logical nor healthy.
Related links: Fear, Death and the CoronavirusThe Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, “The risk is low to the average American.”— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 9, 2020
Why Dems Are Backing Off on Blaming Trump for the Coronavirus
Market Plunges Over Oil, Not the Coronavirus
What the Coronavirus Should Teach Us
The Right Response to the Coronavirus
ADDENDUM: How about this positive message beyond the panic:
Interesting, real story here with some solid advice.An American woman who has recovered from the novel coronavirus has a simple message for people who are worried: Don't panic -- but do think about high-risk individuals and stay home if you feel ill.
Elizabeth Schneider lives in Seattle, the biggest city of Washington state, which has the most deaths in the United States from the disease sweeping the globe.
The 37-year-old, who has a PhD in bioengineering, said she was sharing her story "to give people a little bit of hope" through her own relatively mild experience with the infection, which she treated herself from home.
Related link: ‘Freaking out doesn’t help.’ 10 things you can do right now — instead of losing your head about the Dow or coronavirus
