Monday, March 21, 2016

Data point: Understand that a vote for Trump is a vote for Hillary Clinton

"Stop for a minute, take a look at the data, and realize Trump is a road to nowhere except Hillary Clinton’s inauguration come January." ~ Steve Deace
“Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are flip-sides of the same coin. Donald Trump has made billions buying influence in Washington. Hillary Clinton has made millions selling influence in Washington. ... But if you are fed up with Washington, with the corruption of Washington, then it doesn’t make any sense to support Donald Trump who has been enmeshed in the corruption of Washington.” ~ Ted Cruz
You've summarily heard (and hopefully understand) why at this point in the primaries a vote for Kasich is inevitably a vote for Trump. What some, too many actually, still can't comprehend is that a vote for Trump is ultimately a vote for Hillary Clinton!

The latest polls show Trump halfway to the magic number, but there's some REALLY BAD NEWS awaiting Republican voters if they so choose to push him over: Trump won't win.
ABW: A new Reuters rolling poll shows Donald Trump nearing the magic 50 percent number among Republicans – at least among the Republicans Reuters asked.

No matter what his political opponents, enemies or the media throw in his way, Trump’s polling figures keep on rising.

But that’s just among Republicans.

There’s bad news for Trump when you look at head-to-head match-ups in the general election, and REALLY bad news for the GOP in general.

Real Clear Politics has a selection of polls for New York, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, and the results are ugly.

Not a single poll shows Donald Trump beating either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Not a one. Nada. Zip. Zilch.
Steve Deace continues with a logical assessment of the data...let's call it an 11th hour WAKE UP CALL!
CR: I show you this today, but what I fear is that I will have to chastise you with it eight months from now.

Because with the most recent Super Tuesday results under his belt, you will no doubt hear a lot concerning Donald Trump’s chances against Hillary Clinton.

You know, like he actually has one. But while there is still time for Ted Cruz to defeat him one-on-one, please listen clearly to what I’m about to say:

Trump can’t win in November. He is, in fact, a total non-starter despite the mirage that is his current delegate lead. And that’s exactly why the liberal media loves him. They know it, too.

So if Trump becomes the Republican nominee, may God have mercy on those naïve or suicidal enough to believe that such a man could deliver us from a moral and anti-Constitutional plague he is deeply complicit in spreading. Please know this isn’t my opinion talking. This is the actual data that too many of you are ignoring in the midst of your justifiable anti-establishment revolt.
First, Deace pulls back the veil on the illusory Republican base of evangelicals...
Let’s start with the data on Trump’s struggles with the Republican base, including evangelicals. A sizable portion of these folks will want absolutely no part of supporting an unrepentant serial liar, adulterer, and fornicator who has funded virtually every anti-Christian cause and politician in the country.

“But wait,” some of you reading this will say, “I thought Trump was winning evangelical voters.”

It is true that Trump has won a plurality (not majority) of voters calling themselves “evangelical” in several states so far. However, the group that most consistently votes against Trump is those who “attend church regularly or weekly.”

In other words, the term “evangelical” has been watered down like virtually everything else these post-modern days. In this case there are lots of white folks who love guns, NASCAR, and rally around the flag, and they think that’s what makes them an evangelical. They’re conforming to a cultural norm more so than being transformed by the real Gospel.

That’s not to say there aren’t real born-again believers voting for Trump, because there are and I know several. It’s just that most born-again believers aren’t and won’t.
Then on to the rest (for brevity, I'll bullet-point these startling stats). Keep in mind that these are pulled from many of the same poll sources that Trumpeteers have relished throughout the campaign cycle...
  • USAToday says that Trump loses younger voters under 35-years old to Hillary Clinton by 33 points.
  • Trump also has a 77% unfavorable rating with Hispanics, according to Gallup, which is more than twice that of Ted Cruz (30%).
  • Since October, the percentage of women who have a “very unfavorable view” of Trump has gone up from 40% to 50% according to Reuters.
  • In the current ABC News/Washington Post poll Trump now has the highest overall unfavorable of any domestic politician in the survey’s history.
  • Since May there have been 50 general election polls taken of Trump versus Hillary Clinton head-to-head according to Real Clear Politics. Despite the fact during that span Hillary has been plagued by some of the worst headlines of her career, Trump has only beaten her in five of them (including only two in the last four months).
After Deace goes on to demonstrate the consistency of these polls, addressing those who'd ignore them now when they're telling them information they don't want to hear, he introduces one final nugget...
If all this data doesn’t convince you that Trump 2016 is a fool’s errand, perhaps this final nugget will. Last week a study by The New York Times showed that Trump has received more media coverage during this primary than all the other GOP candidates combined — valued at over $2 billion.

Which begs this final question that should give you cause for pause: if Trump’s negatives are this high after the best media coverage he could’ve hoped for, what will they be after that same media then turns on him and treats him like they do every other GOP presidential nominee? The only thing that gets higher ratings than building somebody up like Trump is the inevitable tearing him down.
There is still time for a positive conclusion, that begins with T-E-D and ends with C-R-U-Z!
Thankfully, we still have a competitive GOP primary so the story doesn’t have to end this way. But that requires you, the reader, to set aside emotion for a moment and think critically. Just as I did last fall after initially flirting with hopping aboard the Trump Train last summer.

There is one candidate that can save us from this fate — and his name is Ted Cruz.

As for the rest of you so angry that you refuse to think critically, and are bound and determined to see your tantrum through regardless of the consequences, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Please don't begin another 4-to-8 years with another I Told You So, Republicans. #ChooseCruz

Related links: Ted Cruz might be the most qualified presidential hopeful in decades. Here are some things you may not know about him.
Cruz Camp Circulates Video Of Andrew Breitbart Saying Trump ‘Not A Conservative’

Snakes, Weasels and Wise Guys
The Trump CFR Connection Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Richard Haass are all working together.

Poll: Trump, Clinton score historic unfavorable ratings

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